Macroeconomic Indicators
Macroeconomic indicators that are helpful to see all in one place. Click on the titles to expand for more info.
The FRED CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) serves as a widely recognized gauge of market sentiment and expected volatility. Also known as the “fear gauge,” the VIX measures investors’ expectations for stock market volatility over the next 30 days. A rising VIX suggests increasing uncertainty and potential market turbulence, prompting investors to exercise caution. On the other hand, a declining VIX implies a more stable market environment, which can boost investor confidence and encourage higher stock market participation. Monitoring the VIX helps investors assess market risk, make informed decisions, and implement appropriate hedging strategies to manage portfolio exposure during periods of heightened volatility. [source]
The FRED Federal Funds Effective Rate represents the interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other banks overnight. Changes in the federal funds rate influence short-term borrowing costs for banks and can impact the overall cost of capital for businesses. As the rate is a key tool used by the Federal Reserve to implement monetary policy, shifts in the rate can signal changes in the central bank’s stance on inflation and economic growth. Investors monitor the federal funds rate as it can impact various sectors, particularly interest rate-sensitive industries like banking, real estate, and utilities. Additionally, changes in the federal funds rate can influence investor sentiment, potentially leading to shifts in market trends. [source]
The FRED unemployment rate is a key economic indicator measuring the percentage of the labor force unemployed and actively seeking work. Its importance lies in its ability to reflect the overall health of the economy. A high unemployment rate signals economic weakness, impacting consumer spending, corporate performance, and investor sentiment. Additionally, central banks use unemployment data to influence interest rates, affecting various sectors in the stock market. [source]
The FRED Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income reflects the financial health and resilience of households. When this ratio is low, it indicates that households have more disposable income available for spending and investing. Conversely, a high ratio could signal increased financial stress among households, leading to reduced consumer spending and potential negative impacts on certain industries. This indicator can provide insights into consumer behavior, economic stability, and potential risks in the market. Changes in household debt service payments relative to disposable income may influence investor sentiment. [source]
The FRED NBER based Recession Indicator serves as a reliable tool to identify economic downturns or recessions. This indicator is based on the business cycle dating methodology used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), making it a credible measure of economic contractions. For investors, knowing when a recession begins and ends is crucial because stock markets tend to react negatively to economic downturns. Monitoring the NBER Recession Indicator can help investors make informed decisions about asset allocation, and risk management to navigate changing market conditions during recessionary periods. [source]
The FRED 10-year Treasury constant maturity minus 2-year Treasury constant maturity, often referred to as the “yield curve spread,” is a widely accepted indicator for its predictive power of economic conditions. It represents the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates, which can signal potential changes in economic growth and inflation expectations. A positive yield curve spread indicates a healthy economic outlook, which can boost investor confidence . Conversely, an inverted yield curve, where short-term rates exceed long-term rates, has historically been a reliable predictor of economic downturns and stock market corrections. Monitoring this spread can provide valuable insights into economic conditions. [source]
The FRED Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) provides a critical measure of inflation. Inflation can have significant implications for the economy and financial markets. Investors closely monitor CPI-U data because rising inflation can erode purchasing power, impact consumer spending, and affect corporate profitability, potentially leading to changes in stock prices. Central banks also use CPI data to guide their monetary policy decisions, particularly in setting interest rates. Changes in interest rates can influence borrowing costs, investment decisions, and valuations in the stock market. As such, understanding CPI-U trends can help investors understand potential shifts in the stock market. [source]
The FRED Existing Home Sales: Housing Inventory reflects the state of the real estate market, which has significant implications for various industries. A robust housing market stimulates economic activity, benefiting construction, home improvement, and financial sectors. Low housing inventory can drive competition among buyers, potentially leading to higher property prices and benefiting real estate and mortgage-related companies. Conversely, a high housing inventory may indicate weaker demand, potentially signaling economic challenges and impacting sectors reliant on housing sales and related activities. [source]
The FRED Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measures consumer spending, which drives a significant portion of the economy. Consumer spending influences corporate revenues, impacting stock prices of companies across various sectors. Changes in PCE data can provide insights into the health of businesses and consumer sentiment, affecting investor confidence and market trends. Moreover, PCE is a crucial factor for central banks in assessing inflation and making monetary policy decisions that can influence interest rates and stock market performance. [source]
The FRED Smoothed US Recession Probabilities provides valuable insights into the likelihood of an impending economic recession. These probabilities are calculated using sophisticated statistical models and historical data, making them a credible indicator for investors. As stock markets are sensitive to economic cycles, the probabilities can help investors anticipate potential shifts in market conditions. Rising recession probabilities may prompt investors to adopt defensive positions to protect their portfolios from potential downturns, while declining probabilities may signal a more favorable market environment and encourage higher risk-taking. Monitoring these probabilities may assist investors in making informed decisions, and managing risk. [source]
The FRED CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) serves as a widely recognized gauge of market sentiment and expected volatility. Also known as the “fear gauge,” the VIX measures investors’ expectations for stock market volatility over the next 30 days. A rising VIX suggests increasing uncertainty and potential market turbulence, prompting investors to exercise caution. On the other hand, a declining VIX implies a more stable market environment, which can boost investor confidence and encourage higher stock market participation. Monitoring the VIX helps investors assess market risk, make informed decisions, and implement appropriate hedging strategies to manage portfolio exposure during periods of heightened volatility. [source]
The FRED 10-year Treasury constant maturity minus 2-year Treasury constant maturity, often referred to as the “yield curve spread,” is a widely accepted indicator for its predictive power of economic conditions. It represents the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates, which can signal potential changes in economic growth and inflation expectations. A positive yield curve spread indicates a healthy economic outlook, which can boost investor confidence . Conversely, an inverted yield curve, where short-term rates exceed long-term rates, has historically been a reliable predictor of economic downturns and stock market corrections. Monitoring this spread can provide valuable insights into economic conditions. [source]
The FRED Federal Funds Effective Rate represents the interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other banks overnight. Changes in the federal funds rate influence short-term borrowing costs for banks and can impact the overall cost of capital for businesses. As the rate is a key tool used by the Federal Reserve to implement monetary policy, shifts in the rate can signal changes in the central bank’s stance on inflation and economic growth. Investors monitor the federal funds rate as it can impact various sectors, particularly interest rate-sensitive industries like banking, real estate, and utilities. Additionally, changes in the federal funds rate can influence investor sentiment, potentially leading to shifts in market trends. [source]
The FRED Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) provides a critical measure of inflation. Inflation can have significant implications for the economy and financial markets. Investors closely monitor CPI-U data because rising inflation can erode purchasing power, impact consumer spending, and affect corporate profitability, potentially leading to changes in stock prices. Central banks also use CPI data to guide their monetary policy decisions, particularly in setting interest rates. Changes in interest rates can influence borrowing costs, investment decisions, and valuations in the stock market. As such, understanding CPI-U trends can help investors understand potential shifts in the stock market. [source]
The FRED unemployment rate is a key economic indicator measuring the percentage of the labor force unemployed and actively seeking work. Its importance lies in its ability to reflect the overall health of the economy. A high unemployment rate signals economic weakness, impacting consumer spending, corporate performance, and investor sentiment. Additionally, central banks use unemployment data to influence interest rates, affecting various sectors in the stock market. [source]
The FRED Existing Home Sales: Housing Inventory reflects the state of the real estate market, which has significant implications for various industries. A robust housing market stimulates economic activity, benefiting construction, home improvement, and financial sectors. Low housing inventory can drive competition among buyers, potentially leading to higher property prices and benefiting real estate and mortgage-related companies. Conversely, a high housing inventory may indicate weaker demand, potentially signaling economic challenges and impacting sectors reliant on housing sales and related activities. [source]
The FRED Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income reflects the financial health and resilience of households. When this ratio is low, it indicates that households have more disposable income available for spending and investing. Conversely, a high ratio could signal increased financial stress among households, leading to reduced consumer spending and potential negative impacts on certain industries. This indicator can provide insights into consumer behavior, economic stability, and potential risks in the market. Changes in household debt service payments relative to disposable income may influence investor sentiment. [source]
The FRED Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measures consumer spending, which drives a significant portion of the economy. Consumer spending influences corporate revenues, impacting stock prices of companies across various sectors. Changes in PCE data can provide insights into the health of businesses and consumer sentiment, affecting investor confidence and market trends. Moreover, PCE is a crucial factor for central banks in assessing inflation and making monetary policy decisions that can influence interest rates and stock market performance. [source]
The FRED NBER based Recession Indicator serves as a reliable tool to identify economic downturns or recessions. This indicator is based on the business cycle dating methodology used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), making it a credible measure of economic contractions. For investors, knowing when a recession begins and ends is crucial because stock markets tend to react negatively to economic downturns. Monitoring the NBER Recession Indicator can help investors make informed decisions about asset allocation, and risk management to navigate changing market conditions during recessionary periods. [source]
The FRED Smoothed US Recession Probabilities provides valuable insights into the likelihood of an impending economic recession. These probabilities are calculated using sophisticated statistical models and historical data, making them a credible indicator for investors. As stock markets are sensitive to economic cycles, the probabilities can help investors anticipate potential shifts in market conditions. Rising recession probabilities may prompt investors to adopt defensive positions to protect their portfolios from potential downturns, while declining probabilities may signal a more favorable market environment and encourage higher risk-taking. Monitoring these probabilities may assist investors in making informed decisions, and managing risk. [source]
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Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All material is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it as accurate or complete.
These materials do not constitute investment advice and do not take into account particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of individuals. Users should consider whether these materials are suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice.